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Credit & Collections: The 500 LB Gorilla in the Room

By: Alan Walsh, Owner, Huntington Consultancy

www.huntingtonconsultancy.com

info@huntingtonconsultancy.com

(714) 465-2749

 

A Topic That Makes People Uncomfortable

Credit & Collections is a topic that makes business people grit their teeth. By human nature, they instinctively shrink away from it.

Denying credit runs counter to our sales-oriented business mantra.. and few people like to make collection calls.

Sales forces resent the whole function as an intrusion on their selling activities and customer relations. They want no part of helping in the collections effort for fear of damaging their sensitive customer relations.. they want unlimited credit extended to everyone.. and they fear & resent the Credit Department contacting their customers.

Collections people tend to be shunned, and feel unappreciated. Senior managers are forever trying to find ways to blunt the Credit Department’s “teeth” for fear of damaging customer relations; and often intercede inappropriately in collection efforts.. short-circuiting the process and damaging the credibility of the Collection Representatives in the eyes of the customer. General Managers are usually sales-oriented, so they give a much more sympathetic ear to the Sales Staff than to the “evil” Credit Department.

Small businesses are especially sensitive to Credit & Collections.. because they covet every sale.. their credit review/assignment resources are usually slim to none.. and the owner is often the one who has to pick up the phone & ask for money because there’s no one else to do it. They find it awkward & painful to shift from selling-mode one minute –to- collection-mode the next. Many businesses have failed because the owner just couldn’t bring him/herself to make the hard calls. Turnaround experts make big fees taking control of businesses and doing hard collections the owner can’t emotionally deal with.

Yet Credit & Collections is necessary in every business. Even internet companies face the prospect of having customers challenge credit card transactions; and then having to justify getting paid to the credit card company.

 

Uncollected Receivables Raise Havoc to Company Financials

The damage done by an uncollected receivable is wide-spread. Not only does the company lose all the revenue to cover the money spent buying/producing the products & services and putting them in the customer’s hands.. but also the revenue that would cover the proportionate portion of overhead expenses, and the profit piece, are lost. Plus, most companies still pay the salesman a commission despite the fact that the sale was never collected.

 

Improving the Credit & Collection Function

No business can stand to have any significant losses due to uncollected receivables for long and hope to survive, and yet Credit & Collections is usually a less-then-optimum function in most companies; relegated to some corporate back-water. That having been said, this article presents some practical suggestions based upon experience by which companies can improve their Credit & Collections efforts.

  

The Corporate Culture Must Change

From the President/CEO on down to the people making the collection calls, an attitude and culture change is essential. This is done by recognizing what a sale really constitutes.

A sale is a mini-contract. You agree to deliver goods or services to the customer within a certain timeframe, at a certain price.. and the customer agrees to pay a certain amount to you within a certain timeframe. Failure to pay constitutes breach of contract –and- theft.

All communications with the customer regarding the unpaid receivable should be made in an unemotional, fact-based, even-handed manner; stressing the contractual business obligation. All communications with the customer should convey a consistent message; without short-circuiting interference being introduced at any level of the company. If the company decides for whatever reason to “eat” –or- forgive the debt, it should be done in a manner that doesn’t undercut the credibility of the Collections personnel in the customer’s eyes.

 

Get Sales Into the Picture

The organization that needs to make the biggest cultural change is Sales. They need to be made aware that they’re part of a bigger organization.. that uncollected receivables are hugely damaging.. and that they have a role to play.

 

The Expanded Role of Sales

Sales is the front-line of the company. They’re the company’s eyes and ears in customer relations. There’s much they can and should contribute to protecting the company.

• Sales physically visits customers, and is in a position to make observations that can be used in making credit extension decisions; such as the condition of the business.
• Sales can sniff out customers who look likely to default and/or disappear.
• They can advise Credit promptly when the customer actually closes their doors and/or vanishes.
• Sales can go out and pick up checks. It’s much harder for a customer to dodge unpaid debts when there’s someone standing at their desk.
• Sales can intercede when the customer isn’t answering collection calls.
• Sales can convey Credit messages from the company to customers in a close and personal manner.
• If a customer disappears, Sales can make local inquiries to get clues for tracking the customer down.
• Sales usually knows how to navigate the customer’s internal organization better than Credit.

In severe cases, company management should be prepared to make customer visits too.

 

Giving Sales Their Wake-Up Call

So, given the reality that Sales is the natural enemy of Credit & Collections, how does management elicit their cooperation?

A very direct and effective method is to pay their commissions based upon on collected sales. No Collection.. No Commission. Suddenly, collections become an important factor in their lives. They still won’t like it, but it will force a fundamental change to their mind-set. There’s nothing like hitting someone in the pocketbook to get their attention. Besides, why should they get paid for a sale that was never fully consummated?

It would also help for someone from Finance & Accounting to make a brief presentation to Sales showing the ways in which uncollected receivables damage the company. Most sales people are not very sophisticated in such matters, and need to understand it. They need to comprehend that their prospects are tied to the overall health of the company.

 

Management’s Wake-Up Call

Many companies pay bonuses to managers based upon company performance. But bad debts never seem to figure into the formula. Time for a change. There should also be some clear and coherent rules as to when managers can intercede in the credit & collection process; and how.

Credit & Collections is a Whole-Company Concern

At the very least, Credit and Sales should be meeting periodically to discuss customer statuses. Problem-accounts can be discussed and strategies for joint action devised. Sales should also have the opportunity to discuss the possible increase of Credit Terms for good customers who represent increased sales opportunities. I would expect the President/CEO would be paying attention to these discussions, if not actually participating.

Why do most companies restrict Credit Personnel to working from their desks? A surprise strategic visit to a past-due customer by a Credit Rep. can be very effective in shaking loose money and/or achieving a payment plan. Face-to-face contact is much harder to dodge than a phone call; and psychologically powerful. The Credit Rep. can also visit a new customer to gather information on determining appropriate Credit Limits; or reviewing the limits on an existing one. Besides, face-to-face contact establishes relationships.

In sticky “big-bucks” situations, perhaps the Sales Manager, and/or the President/CEO should be paying the customer a visit. Ratcheting up the attention in this way can be extremely effective.

Know Thy Customers

Of course you need to understand your customers and adjust accordingly. For instance, if you sell materials to a customer who does contract work, he’s not likely to get paid for his work until his contract is complete. When he gets paid, you get paid. Your payment terms will mature, and then he’ll start stalling you. Unfortunately, most aren’t sophisticated enough to bring this situation to your attention up-front, so bad relations ensue. This is an opportunity to become proactive and work out realistic terms that enable your companies to work together on a long-term basis; building loyal customers.

Turning the Tables.. Why Should Sales Have All the Fun?

Credit also needs to take the big-picture view and look for opportunities to promote the company with the resources they have at hand. For instance, years ago I developed an inventory-financing program that enabled new customers to acquire inventory, and existing customers to acquire inventory for expansion, on extended terms. The customer would be required to sign a lien against all their inventory until the debt was paid. The program was hugely successful and enabled us to increase our business by about 1/3 over two years. Only two customers defaulted, and we were able to recoup enough inventory to keep our bad debt losses to a pittance. Customers could use the inventory to open new stores, and have time to get them self-sufficient before the debt came due. It was a win-win for everyone, and of course made Sales very happy..  as well as building loyal customers.

Conclusion

There are other things that can be done, but this article should get the main point across and provide some food for thought. Credit & Collections should be made a whole-company concern, because the whole company is impacted.

Thoughts on Starting a Business

Prepared by:  Alan Walsh, Owner, Huntington Consultancy

(714) 465-2749

http://www.huntingtonconsultancy.com

info@huntingtonconsultancy.com

There’s great interest these days in becoming an independent entrepreneur.  I get a lot of questions from people seeking advice or help. I’ve written on this topic before, but once in a while I like to update my thoughts and suggestions. Here are some I hope you’ll find useful and pertinent.

PLANNING:

Before you spend a penny:

• Slow Down
• Think
• Research

Unless you have the “hot new widget” that the world can’t live without for another second, you’ll have to work at building a business. No problem. Good businesses have been built on such mundane activities as plumbing or retail.  But you don’t want to go in half-cocked to any new venture.

There has to be a need.

An old saying goes: “Find a need and fill it”. In plain English, you must have demand for your products or services to be successful. Sometimes you can “create” that demand with clever marketing, but in most cases you must seek it out the old-fashioned way; and the clever marketing usually has a short shelf-life.

You won’t be operating in a vacuum.

In addition, you’ll probably have competitors for that demand; some of which have been in business a long time and who have honed their competitive skills. They may have skill and experience taking on and defeating other competitors. You don’t want to be their next victim.

Understand the environment you’re walking into.

Don’t go into a new venture without having some comprehension of the demand, your competitors, and what your strategy will be to win the market share you want. There’s a lot of info out there for the taking if you take the time to seek it out. For instance, the federal government tracks a great deal of data on products, industries, regions, demographics, prices, and other pertinent info. It’s free to the public. Go get it. A little internet surfing can uncover other useful data. All it takes is time. Much better to invest time doing things correctly up front than spending it, plus your money, trying to fix a mess later.

Learn before committing.

Understand your demand, your competitors, your operating regions, and any other data that will play significantly into your success or failure. In other words, grasp the business environment around you before jumping into it.

Let the research guide your thinking.

Something else to think about is how well suited you are to the enterprise you’re considering. You don’t want to be doing something you hate; especially if it takes a while for the business to get fired up. You’ll become your own worst enemy. Pick something you love, or can at least tolerate. The experience will be more meaningful. Don’t you want to have fun with your new business? No matter what you choose, there will be tasks you don’t like. For instance, there will be back office administration to be done. You may hate that kind of work. It has to be done, and done correctly. Who will do it? Consider this before committing. Don’t deliver nasty surprises to yourself for lack of foresight.

Don’t create a partnership you’ll regret later, or experience pain getting out of.

If you’re thinking about partnering with a friend or family member; think very carefully about it. I highly discourage it. Such partnerships have a nasty habit of going bad for a variety of reasons. If you just have to do it, draw up a partnership agreement that allows for a friendly (or at least minimally non-hostile) breakup without destroying the business. The bad breakup of a business partnership can be worse than divorce; and a lot more expensive. It can turn family against family, and kill friendships.

Draw on your expertise, or buy someone else’s.

What knowledge do you have that’s applicable to your business? Most people pick something they have some expertise in. If you have no particular specialty, you might want to consider a franchise where you will receive basic training. You’ll have to buy in, and you’ll have to surrender some profit & freedom, but you’ll get support and it works for many.

Knowledge is power.

These and many other thoughts should be considered and addressed before you spend a single dime on your new venture; otherwise you’ll probably just be throwing your time and money away. Starting a business is not a game. Treat it seriously out of respect for yourself and your immediate family.

FINANCING:

Now we get down to the part where most people hit a wall:  MONEY!

Most of the people who contact me need investment money for their business ideas. Many think I’m going to wave a magic wand and hand it to them. I always ask them three questions up front:

1. Do you have any money of your own to put in?
2. Do you have a business plan?
3. What will you live on until the business becomes profitable enough to support you?

Really? You want someone else to fund your entire venture? Good Luck with that!

If the answer to question 1. is “No”, you’ll have a hard time getting anyone else to invest. Investors like to see you taking risk right alongside them. Why should they take all the risk? Project yourself into their shoes. Would you give someone money for a venture that they won’t even invest in themselves? It always amazes me how many people don’t grasp this basic fact of human nature.

Your desperation is no motive for an investor to give you their money.

Let’s say you’ve started a venture and already invested all your money.  If you have no positive track record to show yet, it’s as if you’re starting from scratch with no money. In fact, questions will be raised about your failure to-date. Not a great situation in which to be asking for someone else’s money.  Again, put yourself in their shoes. Where’s the investor’s motivation?  They don’t care about how desperate you might be. They only care about protecting their own money; and making more money.

No Business Plan..  No Money.

If the answer to question 2. is “No”, you’ll have virtually no luck raising money; and in this economic climate, even if you have a business plan, it had better be really good. You’ll be competing with a lot of people for a very limited supply of investment money; and only the sharpest, who have done their homework and preparation, will succeed.

You’ve gotta’ eat!

If you have no answer to question 3., don’t even think of starting a business. You’re just dreaming. Most businesses take time to become profitable. Without an outside income source, you’ll just eat up your own business – literally –  and fail.

This stuff is important. Don’t try to half-ass it.

If you’re serious about starting a business, but your expertise in these matters is weak, seek professional help. The huge bone-pile of aborted and failed ventures is filled with people who tried to “muck it through”.

STARTUP:

Okay, so you’ve done your research, carefully thought out your business, written your business plan, raised your money, and lined up your temporary living income – and now you’re ready to actually get your business fired up & running:

• Start small
• Pace yourself

As a new business owner, you’re going to make mistakes. I virtually guarantee it. Do you want them to be small, inexpensive mistakes?.. or large, costly ones? Start small and give yourself a chance to grow with your business. Make your initial decisions & commitments deliberately and with thoughtfulness. If you rush in, you will likely rush to failure.

Operate mean & lean.

Don’t throw a lot of money at the business initially. Start with the absolute minimum investment required. Squeeze every penny and make your investment work as hard as possible for you. Grow the business from it’s own profits. If you build a decent track record, investors will seek you out. By then, you’ll probably be knowledgeable & seasoned enough to expand.

• Don’t buy where you can rent or lease
• Don’t acquire anything you don’t absolutely need
• Conserve cash for unexpected challenges, or new opportunities that arise
• Don’t succumb to frivolous temptations
• Make your money generate money

If you have an outside investor, they’ll be watching carefully to see what you do with their money. If you don’t have an outside investor, act as if you do.

Don’t let your business enslave you.

The next piece of advice is hard to follow when your business is new..  but try to avoid getting involved in something that makes you its slave. You’re going to become stale. You’re going to wear yourself out. Once in a while you need to walk away and let someone take charge for a short time. Besides, if you spend your whole life at the business, what was the point of starting it in the first place? What will your quality of life be like? Do you want to just work your life away and drop dead on the job?

AS THE BUSINESS GROWS:

Assuming you’ve got your business up & running, and have experienced some initial success, you’ll now face a new set of challenges.  You’ll hit new plateaus.  New problems & obstacles will present themselves.  Situations will develop requiring new knowledge & expertise.  This is where a lot of entrepreneurs get into trouble.

Ego is one of the biggest killers of new businesses.

It takes a certain amount of self-confidence, ego, and risk-taking tolerance to start a new business.  This is good.  But no one knows everything. I virtually guarantee you’ll run into challenges you’re not properly armed for. Don’t let your ego get in the way. Seek help. A small investment in professional help now can save you tons of money down the road, or help build profits exponentially. Likewise, keep an open mind to those around you.  Your employees, customers, vendors, and others will impact upon your business. They might offer you “better mousetraps” if you’re receptive enough to see them. In my opinion, ego is the biggest killer of young businesses. People will stick with their stubborn perceptions right up to the day they are forced to close their doors; and then wonder why they failed. Turnaround experts make tons of money by taking control of your business away from you to do what is required; then they hand it back to you to screw up all over again. Don’t get caught up in that self-destructive trap.

The day will come when you must let go and delegate.

Finally, the day will come when your business has grown to the point where you can’t micro-manage it alone anymore. This is another area where entrepreneurs often get into trouble. When you feel yourself getting pulled in too many directions, it’s time to let go and delegate some of it to others. Many just can’t bring themselves to do it. Hire wisely, delegate, let them do their job, and manage by results. If  a hire doesn’t work out, deal with it promptly. Don’t let the problem fester. Those businesses where the owner can’t make this transition usually fail.

Don’t take my word for any of this.  Lots of studies have been done on this topic, and there’s plenty of data out there to support my opinions. This is not “rocket science”, and my perspectives are not unique.

I can go into a lot more, but these are the key thoughts that come to mind. I have a great deal of respect for entrepreneurs, and wish you all well. If I can help, give me a call or send me an email. I’ve built four successful businesses myself, and have helped many others with theirs.

Why the U.S. Government Hates -and Fears- Gold

By Alan Walsh

The U.S. Government hates Gold because it serves as a clear, unambiguous, and constant sign of their fiscal irresponsibility.

U.S. currency used to be issued by the U.S. Government, and was backed by Gold. You could literally trade-in your dollars for Gold. Then, the Federal Reserve system was created, the dollar was disconnected from Gold, and the U.S. government stopped issuing currency. To really “seal the deal”, the government even outlawed individual ownership of Gold for awhile and forced citizens to sell it to them at a fixed price they set; then they raised the “official” price of Gold, devaluing every dollar citizens held by about 40%.

The Federal Reserve (also referred to as the U.S. central banking system, or central bank) is not a government agency; it’s a private bank, owned by other big banks, and run by people from those banks. When the U.S. Government wants additional money to spend, it buys it at face value ($100 for a $100 bill, for instance) from the Federal Reserve; which creates the currency. That’s why your dollars say “Federal Reserve Note” on them. In order to buy the currency, the U.S. government goes into debt  via Treasury Notes & Bills, etc. The government then spends that money.

Why did the U.S. government do this? So politicians could avoid accountability, buy votes, get reelected, increase their power, and transfer the effect of their spending to the future. This is how the federal government got to be the monster it is today. Under the old system, the government could only spend as much as it held in gold-backed dollars. If they wanted to spend more, they had to tax citizens. Citizens don’t like higher taxes, and get upset. Politicians lose jobs. Government was held accountable. The new Federal Reserve system removes this nasty inconvenience by letting the politicians just go buy currency from the Federal Reserve, creating new debt in the process; and government debt is a claim on the productivity of the nation – therefore it is your debt. Government doesn’t produce; it only consumes – your wealth. The income tax was created at the same time as the Federal Reserve system to pay for this debt.

As government buys more dollars from the Federal Reserve (and creates more debt in the process), it increases the number of dollars in circulation; thus creating inflation – plus damaging boom & bust cycles in the economy – plus interest expense on the debt. This is where Gold becomes very annoying to them. Gold, like any other commodity, adjusts in price with inflation and glaringly points it out. As the number of dollars in circulation goes up, the price of Gold rises.  People see their purchasing power in dollars go down, so they trade them for Gold; which holds its purchasing power in times of inflation and serves as alternative money. Government doesn’t want you to notice their little shell game, and they don’t want you to stop using and holding their inflationary dollars, so they hate Gold.

Our government, and other governments who play the same shell game, try to control the price of Gold and hold it artificially down through surreptitious trading activity in league with major financial firms. They try to send you false signals about their inflationary borrow & spend activity by artificially holding the cost of Gold down. If the price of Gold is low, everything must be okay, right? Wrong! Very, very wrong!

We’ve now reached a point where government borrowing and spending is so extreme that they can’t artificially hold Gold down to the price level they would like anymore.  Thus, Gold is trading near $1,700.00 per ounce. Many experts argue that if the government wasn’t surreptitiously intervening in the market to hold the price of Gold down, it would be trading for $3,000 or more.  Regardless, the rise in the price of Gold is a clear and unambiguous signal that government spending is out of control. The effect of this is to undermine peoples’ faith in the dollar and our government.  That makes it hard for government to keep up their shell game. Their borrowing & spending has also created a debt that the income tax can’t begin to cover – plus those nasty and growing interest obligations.

Sober people have also questioned how much of the Gold the government holds it actually owns anymore. They suspect that the government’s secret Gold sales to flood the market and hold the market price of Gold down have been so extensive that very little of the Gold they hold is actually owned by them anymore. Large Gold sales usually don’t involve physical transfer. An electronic record is created to note the new ownership. Therefore the government may be sitting on a large cache of Gold that “we the people” don’t own anymore. Perhaps this is partly why the price of Gold has risen despite government’s best efforts to hold it down. Maybe they’ve run out of Gold to sell. We can’t know for sure, because the government hides this activity behind a thick wall of secrecy. But bits and pieces of info leak out now and then, and they paint a dismal picture. Investigators have even uncovered documents created by central bankers for central bankers on how to execute market intervention between each other to hold the Gold price down.

As the government shell game grows, people start paying attention, and realizing how they’re being hosed by the government’s inflationary, destructive borrow and spend policy. If more Americans understood how our monetary policy works, and what government’s doing to them, they’d be screaming. Government does everything it can to keep us in ignorance.

Faith in the U.S. Dollar has been so severely undermined that other nations, who are not so naive in these matters, are seriously talking about abandoning the dollar as the “world currency”, a beneficial status which the U.S. has enjoyed since the end of World War II. If that happens, investment coming into the U.S. will decline and government will find it increasingly difficult to sell or roll-over their debt; China being our largest current creditor. Then the U.S. will hit a “fiscal cliff” that makes the current one look like a ride in the park.

The U.S. national debt is now over $16 Trillion dollars; over $52,000 per person, and approx. 125% of gross domestic product (gross domestic product being our productivity as a nation – your productivity – the productivity our government taxes you on) – a new record by far. The current government’s policies alone added $8 Trillion to that debt in the last four years. Then there’s the interest on all that debt. Budget projections indicate that the national debt could hit $20 Trillion in the next couple years if we keep going the way we are. Other nations are starting to look at the U.S. like Greece; a bankrupt financial disaster. We’re mortgaging our nation to entities like China, who are not exactly our friends. The current administration’s indebted the nation to a greater extent than any other, but they’re not the only perpetrators. This has been going for decades since the new system was created. It’s not a Democrat or Republican problem – it’s a national tragedy.

Gold at $1,700 an ounce sends this signal clearly – which government fears and hates.

The government wants you to hold their inflationary dollars. The Federal Reserve does too; and bad-mouths Gold. The finance houses who surreptitiously work with the government to control the price of Gold tell you that Gold is an unproductive asset, and you should hold dollars instead; while they quietly buy it for their own accounts. They’re all propagandizing you to keep their shell game going. I remember one time a couple of years ago when one of the major financial houses (JP Morgan I believe) was publicly telling it’s clients to sell Gold, while privately buying it for their own account.

The national tragedy goes even deeper. The Federal Reserve holds secret meetings where it shares inside information with the finance houses who help it; information that they use to make millions and billions on the markets from you unknowing investors. If you think the equity & debt markets are free and open, think again. It’s all manipulated.

Let’s talk about one of the many ways in which your government shafts you with this shell game – Social Security. You are required to make tax payments into Social Security. These payments are made with post-income tax dollars (you’re first income-taxed on the income you pay the social security tax with). The government spends the social security revenues (money) and replaces them in the social security trust fund with government debt instruments; thus, the government spends your social security contributions as it sees fit, and replaces them with new government debt. Of course, government debt is a claim on the productivity of the country – your productivity – and therefore represents a new debt you as citizens take on. This is important to note, because government spends your social security contributions, and creates a new debt owed by you as a citizen (another tax) for payment of benefits to you. Then, when you receive your benefits, up to 85% of them are subject to income tax depending on your filing status and how much income from other sources you have coming in.

To recap, the government first taxes the income you pay social security taxes with (income tax), then taxes you for social security (social security tax), then spends the money and replaces it with new debt (a new claim on your productivity, or tax), and then taxes you on your benefits (income tax). That’s three taxes on the money you put into social security, plus the social security tax itself. Of course, the government must pay interest on the new debt they created (another claim on your productivity, or tax), so really you pay five taxes; and your contributions are spent now for anything the government wants. Most citizens think the government is taking their money and putting it into a social security trust fund (savings account) to pay your benefits. Nope! That money’s gone. They spent it and replaced it with debt – debt that you owe as citizens.

The government says that your benefits money is safe because it’s invested in instruments guaranteed by the U.S. government. What they really mean is that your benefit claims are backed by their ability to tax you; or create new debt that you owe as a citizen; and that’s the only way those benefits are going to be paid. They just keep spending the tax money as it comes in, and pass the buck for social security obligations to future generations. Neat trick huh?

Additionally, “people retiring today are part of the first generation of workers who have paid more in Social Security taxes during their careers than they will receive in benefits after they retire. It’s a historic shift that will only get worse for future retirees, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.”  The government absorbed all the money you put in, plus the employer contributions, and you won’t even get back what you alone put in; let alone all the interest you could have earned on that money over the years. This is what your government has done for you. Isn’t it great? What a deal!

Your wealth, purchasing power, and financial stability are being undermined every day by the government’s borrow & spend shell game, the underhanded dealings of the Federal Reserve and it’s finance house cronies, and very likely the sale of our nation’s Gold reserves (your Gold reserves) to manipulate the markets and fool you. Even your most basic “protections” are being undermined by government subterfuge. Gold serves as a clear warning, and an alternative.

That’s why the U.S. government hates -and fears- Gold.

Be informed.

Learn More About the U.S. Government Monetary Policy:

http://walshal.wordpress.com/2009/04/11/monetary-policy-a-primer/

Other Suggested Reading:

America Has Become a Pinata

http://walshal.wordpress.com/2012/12/28/america-has-become-a-pinata/

Cashflow is King

New article from Alan Walsh: Cashflow is King.

Click to go to article on Slideshare

Gold Just Became Money Again

Courtesy of Doug Hornig at The Daily Reckoning

 

On June 18, the Federal Reserve and FDIC circulated a letter to banks that proposes to harmonize US regulatory capital rules with Basel III.

BASEL III is an accord that tells a bank how much capital it must hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability.

It’s a global standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and market liquidity risk.

Here’s the important bit:

At the top of the proposed changes is the new list of “zero-percent risk weighted items,” which now includes “gold bullion,” right after “cash.”

That’s the part to take notice of.

If the proposals are approved by regulators — and that seems likely since adoption of Basel III will be — then this is a momentous change for the gold market.

Now banks will be allowed to hold bullion in their vaults and count it among their Tier 1 assets — in other words, the least risky assets.

That by itself would be bullish for the gold price, as banks that recognize gold’s unique characteristics seek to stockpile more of it.

But that’s not the whole story…

Gold Regains Money Status

For one thing, Basel III also stipulates that a bank’s Tier 1 holdings must rise from 4% of assets to 6%.

That means that banks may not only replace a portion of their existing paper with bullion, but may use it to meet some of the extra 2% as well.

In addition, this vote of confidence from the highest monetary authorities gives further impetus to the remonetization of gold.

In essence, what’s happening is that from now on gold will be considered “money” in virtually the same way as cash or bonds.

And banks will be given the choice between holding more of their core assets in history’s most reliable store of value vs. paper backed by nothing more than the promises of increasingly wasteful governments.

Finally, there is the impact on individual and institutional investors.

Jeff Clark, in Casey Research’s BIG GOLD newsletter, has been guiding gold investors for years. In his view, this news looks set to really shake up the gold market, because as regulators and banks increasingly view gold as having safety on a par with the various paper alternatives, it is logical that they will also see the need to beef up their own holdings.

There are a number of positives for gold going forward.

Though it remains speculation on our part, we believe that the net result of Basel III and associated adjustments to US regulations will be an increased recognition of gold’s safe-haven status across all markets.

And that translates into higher global demand for the metal next year, and a concomitant increase in its price.

Debt Derivatives and Gold will Explode Shortly

Courtesy of: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Debt derivatives and gold will explode shortly, von Greyerz tells King World News

Fund manager Egon von Greyerz, interviewed by King World News today, expects debt derivatives to start exploding across Europe and the United States soon, and gold to end its consolidation phase and to start moving up again as soon as next week. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/17_Greyerz_-_Gold_to_Begin_a_Major_Advance_Starting_Next_Week.html

Proof of U.S. Greater Depression

Proof of U.S. Greater Depression

Courtesy of Jeff Nielson

It has become increasingly difficult to engage in credible economic analysis, especially with respect to the U.S. economy. The problem: ever more limited sources of uncorrupted data, while the farcical “official statistics” have long since been totally divorced from the real world.

Fortunately we have been presented with some raw, uncorrupted data which demonstrates in conclusive terms that the U.S. economy is literally shriveling before our eyes: a 21^st century economy with plummeting energy consumption, and even a declining use of electricity.

As I was sifting through all of Bloomberg’s propaganda on the latest U.S. trade numbers (and trying to latch onto a few facts), I came across one very peculiar passage:

…American companies also bought more consumer household items, automobiles and parts, and crude oil from overseas.

Exports increased 0.7 percent to $178.8 billion, boosted by record sales of petroleum to buyers overseas. That caused the trade gap excluding petroleum to widen even more than the deficit overall…

The great U.S. economy, the largest oil-glutton in the history of humanity (by several multiples) is now a “net energy exporter”. How can this be possible? The U.S. economy has contracted so severely (already) that the only way that U.S. refineries can sell all the petroleum products they produce is to sell them to the growing economies of “emerging market” nations.

Reflecting the broad-based collapse of the U.S. economy, these refineries are now exporting all categories of petroleum products: diesel, jet fuel, and even gasoline are now being exported in large quantities, month-after-month by U.S. refineries. Recall that it was only four, short years ago that many American politicians were alarmed by the crisis of the “lack of U.S. refining capacity”. No new refineries have been constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years, and at that time those refineries were straining to meet the demand of solely the U.S. domestic market. With that domestic market collapsing, these refineries are now straining to find enough foreign buyers to unload all of their inventories.

Given these facts alone, it is utterly absurd for the U.S. government to pretend that the U.S. economy is growing. Note that the government claims that most of this growth is occurring in agriculture and manufacturing – both very energy-intensive industries. There’s no doubt that the energy-intensive agriculture sector is thriving, a result of a growing global “appetite” and Wall Street-induced shortages in most commodities. So with the large U.S. agriculture sector gobbling up more energy than ever, what does that say about the rest of the (decaying) U.S. economy?

Let us not forget that the U.S. population continues to grow. More people using much, much, less energy; and this is called a “growing economy”? Absurd. Even more absurd, this steadily growing population has been using much less electricity, going back to around 2007.

Mark Lundeen provided a very detailed analysis of the consumption of U.S. electricity in a recent commentary. It shows U.S. electrical consumption peaking in approximately 2006, and then beginning a distinct decline starting in 2007. Yes, power demand has “bounced back” somewhat from the worst of the collapse – but at levels still more than 3% lower than in 2007. Put another way, the supposed “U.S. economic recovery” has only resulted in roughly half of that lost demand being restored.

 

 

 

This minimal boost in electrical demand reflects nothing more than pent-up demand from the increase in population which has taken place since 2007, and in no way is suggestive of any economic growth. And we must keep in mind that this is taking place in a climate of ultra-insane monetary policy: interest rates permanently frozen at 0%. Even with this maximum stimulus, the dying U.S. economy is unable to come close to maintaining its level of demand for electricity.

We must also never forget that all of this decline in energy and electricity consumption comes after the largest/most reckless fiscal stimulus as well. The U.S., with by far the world’s largest national deficit (even using the absurd, official number), has not yet begun the fiscal tightening being attempted in most other Western nations (with the notable exception of Canada).

What happens when this dying economy actually turns off the taps with all of this “easy money” from the government (which the U.S. government obviously cannot afford)? If the most insane/extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus in the history of the global economy has produced nothing but further economic decay, what happens when this unsustainable stimulus ceases to be sustained?

The obvious answer to that question is a Soviet Union-like economic implosion, assuming that reckless money-printing doesn’t produce the nightmare of hyperinflation first.

How sick is the U.S. economy? Bloomberg was recently trumpeting the news that construction of “multi-family units” in the U.S. housing market (the low end of the market) was rising to the same level as in 2008. Yes, and everyone can remember what a wonderful year that 2008 was for U.S. housing. And this is the good news?

Actually it is. Construction of single-family units remain at all-time lows since they first began gathering such data on the U.S. housing market. Thus we are to believe that the U.S. economy is growing and producing new, net jobs each month with plummeting energy consumption, declining usage of electricity, and with the propagandists cheering the housing market because things are now only as bad as they were in 2008.

Again, what happens when the unsustainable stimulus can no longer be sustained?

This is a dying economy in the midst of a Greater Depression. Even with B.S. Bernanke’s permanent 0% interest rates (something which would have been totally unthinkable just four years earlier), this monetary defibrillator cannot continue to feign “life” in this economic corpse. The moment that fiscal tightening inevitably begins, the full brunt of the U.S.’s Greater Depression will bludgeon the American people – and hopefully (finally) awaken then from their terminal apathy.

Any further pretensions of economic growth and job-creation can now only be regarded as absurd and transparent fiction. The world’s great energy glutton is claiming a robust “economic recovery”without using any energy. The statistical charlatans at work for the U.S. government can pretend there is positive GDP growth. They can pretend there is positive jobs growth. But they cannot pretend to consume energy.

There was never any “economic reckoning” for the U.S. economy following the economic collapse which began (in earnest) in 2007. Reckless money-printing (the most reckless in history); reckless fiscal spending (the most reckless in history); and absurd statistical lies (the largest in history) have merely provided a coat of whitewash over top of this economic train-wreck…and now the paint is beginning to peel.

President Obama Doesn’t Know the First Thing About Economics

By Iain Murray

Published July 16, 2011 | FoxNews.com

 

As the Oscar buzz surrounding actress Meryl Streep keeps growing — thanks to her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher, it’s worth remembering one of the real Iron Lady’s most famous observations: that any housewife could manage the British economy. 

President Obama should heed that advice, and realize that economy begins at home. Unfortunately, his recent statements on the economy give little reason for hope on that front.

The president’s press conference on Monday epitomized the “do something” nature of his administration. He wants to do something about … well, everything—from getting more kids into college to fighting global warming (although the latter is less evident these days, at least in public). The trouble is that he thinks he needs more and more of our money to do it, so he wants any budget deal to include tax rises.

Let’s take the example of college education grants, which the president suggested should be funded by an increase in taxes on millionaires like himself. The president’s budget request for 2012 contains an allocation of $36 billion for increased Pell grants for students from poor backgrounds to attend college. That’s out of an entire federal budget request of $3.7 trillion, which makes Pell grant expenditure just 1 percent of the total.

Looking at that from the viewpoint of Mrs. Thatcher’s proverbial housewife, we can compare it to the median household income of about $46,000, which, after taxes, is about $3,000 a month. 

The size of the problem that President Obama singles out as requiring tax increases is equivalent to a household budget shortfall of $30 a month. A competent economic manager should be able to deal with that sort of problem by tightening his or her belt elsewhere. The president’s seeming incapability to contemplate this demonstrates just how out of control the federal spending machine is.

Link to Full Article

Analyst: Even Dollar Stores Struggling In ‘Obama Depression’

LOS ANGELES (CBS) —  More stores across the U.S. that offer deeply-discounted products are seeing their sales decline after years of growth amid America’s “Great Recession” — and one analyst said on Monday it’s another sign of even deeper downturn.

While the demand at stores like the 99-Cent Store or Dollar Tree is still relatively high, the biggest chains in the nation have fallen short of Wall Street’s expectations for several months, a trend that may prove even more ominous for the economy at large.

“I think what’s going on in those stores is that we are in a depression for 80 percent of Americans,” top retail analyst Howard Davidowitz told KNX 1070.

America’s three largest discount chains — Dollar General Corp., Family Dollar Stores Inc. and Dollar Tree Inc. —  all recently missed their quarterly earnings targets.

Davidowitz pointed to the weakness of the dollar and a gloomy consumer outlook as some of the factors behind the stores’ slump.

“In those stores, somebody comes in with $12 to do all their shopping,” said Davidowitz. “The person who used to come in with $12 now comes in with $8.”

“In other words, the economy is continuing to be worse, the Obama depression continues to explode,” he added.

Analysts say rising food and transportation prices are likely eating into the profit margins of discount stores, which risk driving away price-sensitive customers with any potential price hikes.

Core customers at most U.S. discount chains typically have a household income of $40,000 or less.