Proof of U.S. Greater Depression

Proof of U.S. Greater Depression

Courtesy of Jeff Nielson

It has become increasingly difficult to engage in credible economic analysis, especially with respect to the U.S. economy. The problem: ever more limited sources of uncorrupted data, while the farcical “official statistics” have long since been totally divorced from the real world.

Fortunately we have been presented with some raw, uncorrupted data which demonstrates in conclusive terms that the U.S. economy is literally shriveling before our eyes: a 21^st century economy with plummeting energy consumption, and even a declining use of electricity.

As I was sifting through all of Bloomberg’s propaganda on the latest U.S. trade numbers (and trying to latch onto a few facts), I came across one very peculiar passage:

…American companies also bought more consumer household items, automobiles and parts, and crude oil from overseas.

Exports increased 0.7 percent to $178.8 billion, boosted by record sales of petroleum to buyers overseas. That caused the trade gap excluding petroleum to widen even more than the deficit overall…

The great U.S. economy, the largest oil-glutton in the history of humanity (by several multiples) is now a “net energy exporter”. How can this be possible? The U.S. economy has contracted so severely (already) that the only way that U.S. refineries can sell all the petroleum products they produce is to sell them to the growing economies of “emerging market” nations.

Reflecting the broad-based collapse of the U.S. economy, these refineries are now exporting all categories of petroleum products: diesel, jet fuel, and even gasoline are now being exported in large quantities, month-after-month by U.S. refineries. Recall that it was only four, short years ago that many American politicians were alarmed by the crisis of the “lack of U.S. refining capacity”. No new refineries have been constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years, and at that time those refineries were straining to meet the demand of solely the U.S. domestic market. With that domestic market collapsing, these refineries are now straining to find enough foreign buyers to unload all of their inventories.

Given these facts alone, it is utterly absurd for the U.S. government to pretend that the U.S. economy is growing. Note that the government claims that most of this growth is occurring in agriculture and manufacturing – both very energy-intensive industries. There’s no doubt that the energy-intensive agriculture sector is thriving, a result of a growing global “appetite” and Wall Street-induced shortages in most commodities. So with the large U.S. agriculture sector gobbling up more energy than ever, what does that say about the rest of the (decaying) U.S. economy?

Let us not forget that the U.S. population continues to grow. More people using much, much, less energy; and this is called a “growing economy”? Absurd. Even more absurd, this steadily growing population has been using much less electricity, going back to around 2007.

Mark Lundeen provided a very detailed analysis of the consumption of U.S. electricity in a recent commentary. It shows U.S. electrical consumption peaking in approximately 2006, and then beginning a distinct decline starting in 2007. Yes, power demand has “bounced back” somewhat from the worst of the collapse – but at levels still more than 3% lower than in 2007. Put another way, the supposed “U.S. economic recovery” has only resulted in roughly half of that lost demand being restored.

 

 

 

This minimal boost in electrical demand reflects nothing more than pent-up demand from the increase in population which has taken place since 2007, and in no way is suggestive of any economic growth. And we must keep in mind that this is taking place in a climate of ultra-insane monetary policy: interest rates permanently frozen at 0%. Even with this maximum stimulus, the dying U.S. economy is unable to come close to maintaining its level of demand for electricity.

We must also never forget that all of this decline in energy and electricity consumption comes after the largest/most reckless fiscal stimulus as well. The U.S., with by far the world’s largest national deficit (even using the absurd, official number), has not yet begun the fiscal tightening being attempted in most other Western nations (with the notable exception of Canada).

What happens when this dying economy actually turns off the taps with all of this “easy money” from the government (which the U.S. government obviously cannot afford)? If the most insane/extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus in the history of the global economy has produced nothing but further economic decay, what happens when this unsustainable stimulus ceases to be sustained?

The obvious answer to that question is a Soviet Union-like economic implosion, assuming that reckless money-printing doesn’t produce the nightmare of hyperinflation first.

How sick is the U.S. economy? Bloomberg was recently trumpeting the news that construction of “multi-family units” in the U.S. housing market (the low end of the market) was rising to the same level as in 2008. Yes, and everyone can remember what a wonderful year that 2008 was for U.S. housing. And this is the good news?

Actually it is. Construction of single-family units remain at all-time lows since they first began gathering such data on the U.S. housing market. Thus we are to believe that the U.S. economy is growing and producing new, net jobs each month with plummeting energy consumption, declining usage of electricity, and with the propagandists cheering the housing market because things are now only as bad as they were in 2008.

Again, what happens when the unsustainable stimulus can no longer be sustained?

This is a dying economy in the midst of a Greater Depression. Even with B.S. Bernanke’s permanent 0% interest rates (something which would have been totally unthinkable just four years earlier), this monetary defibrillator cannot continue to feign “life” in this economic corpse. The moment that fiscal tightening inevitably begins, the full brunt of the U.S.’s Greater Depression will bludgeon the American people – and hopefully (finally) awaken then from their terminal apathy.

Any further pretensions of economic growth and job-creation can now only be regarded as absurd and transparent fiction. The world’s great energy glutton is claiming a robust “economic recovery”without using any energy. The statistical charlatans at work for the U.S. government can pretend there is positive GDP growth. They can pretend there is positive jobs growth. But they cannot pretend to consume energy.

There was never any “economic reckoning” for the U.S. economy following the economic collapse which began (in earnest) in 2007. Reckless money-printing (the most reckless in history); reckless fiscal spending (the most reckless in history); and absurd statistical lies (the largest in history) have merely provided a coat of whitewash over top of this economic train-wreck…and now the paint is beginning to peel.

U.S. trade deficit surges to $50.2 billion in May

updated 7/12/2011 8:51:24 AM ET 2011-07-12T12:51:24

Courtesy of msnbc.com

 

WASHINGTON — The U.S. trade gap widened much more than expected in May as a jump in oil prices helped push imports to the second highest level on record and exports fell slightly from April’s record high, a U.S. government report showed on Tuesday.

The trade deficit totaled $50.2 billion, the highest since October 2008, and well above the consensus estimate of $44.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed before the report.

Imports rose 2.6 percent to $225.1 billion, the highest since the record of $231.6 billion set in July 2008 just before the global financial crisis took a huge toll on global trade.

The increase reflected record imports of capital goods and food, feeds and beverages in a sign of resurgent U.S. demand, but a jump in oil prices to $108.70 per barrel — the highest since August 2008 — also accounted for a large part of the gain.

The oil price jump helped push the U.S. petroleum trade deficit to the highest since October 2008. Imports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were also the highest since October 2008.

The wider-than-expected trade gap will likely prompt analysts to scale back their estimates of second-quarter economic growth, as imports captured more of stronger U.S. demand.

Link to Full Article

Peak Oil – The Rewards

By Byron King
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

We should expect a global oil shock by 2012…at the latest. But an oil shock doesn’t have to be completely shocking. Why not beat the rush and get ready for the shock now. You might even make a few dollars in the process.

Our story begins with “Peak Oil” – the belief that conventional production of crude has already peaked, and has already slipped into an irreversible decline. As “Peak Oil” moves from mere theory to indisputable fact, the global economy will face wrenching changes. But the vigilant investor will gain an opportunity to profit along the way.

As I discussed in yesterday’s edition of The Daily Reckoning, oil production seems all-but-certain to decline, despite the huge new discoveries off the coasts of Brazil, Africa and elsewhere. In fact, production is already declining rapidly from some of the world’s largest fields. Mexico’s “Catarell” Field, like a kind of Peak Oil poster child, was producing more than 2 million barrels a day as recently as 2005. But production from this field is plummeting irreversibly toward 500,000 barrels a day, as the chart below illustrates.

The recent discoveries of deep offshore oil will certainly help slow the decline of conventional crude oil production, but theses discoveries will not come on line for many, many years.

But what about alternative energy sources? Won’t they make up for the shortfall of crude oil? No chance. Alternative energies might offset a tiny sliver of falling crude oil production. But solar panels can’t lift a fully loaded Boeing 777 off a runway…nor even lift an empty Piper Cub.

So what about the many sources of “unconventional” oil and gas? Won’t these compensate for declining production from conventional sources? The short answer is no.

Geologist Art Berman, for example, offers a decidedly negative view of the latest “big thing” – obtaining large volumes of natural gas from “tight shales.” In a comprehensive review of production and flow rates from several thousand wells drilled in the past decade in the Barnett Shale of Texas, Mr. Berman presents a gloomy forecast.

Looking at a large sampling of Barnett wells, the overall data reveal that initial gas flows decline rapidly. With some wells, the drop-off is as much as 70% in the first year, with further declines of 20% in the second year.

This hardly dovetails with the happy talk about how “shale gas” will supply US energy requirements for the next several decades, if not a couple of centuries. It appears that most Barnett wells are short-term money losers, with a few prolific wells carrying the bulk of capital expenditure.

According to Mr. Berman, the picture is not much better in other shale plays, such as the Fayetteville and Haynesville shales. And similar gloomy data are just now starting to come in on the embryonic gas play in the giant Marcellus formation of Pennsylvania.

But this bad news does need to be ALL bad. As the world’s mature and aging oil fields slip into an irreversible decline, production from the world’s new offshore discoveries will become increasingly important.

Therefore, forward-looking investors can begin TODAY to make selective investments in those sectors of the oil industry that will flourish during the coming oil shock. I am particularly fond of the “deepwater” sector…and have been urging my subscribers for several months to focus on the companies that facilitate deepwater oil production.

Marcio Mello, the former “explorationist” from Petrobras (PBR: NYSE) and now independent petroleum consultant, electrified the Denver meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) with his analysis of several high-profile deepwater discoveries.

In a riveting talk that lasted well over an hour, Marcio detailed the immense petroleum potential of offshore Brazil, as well as the Amazon Basin. If Marcio’s estimates are correct, Brazil may be the location of nearly 200 billion barrels of additional petroleum resources. That’s well within the range of current resource estimates for Saudi Arabia.

For good measure, Marcio described the petroleum potential of offshore West Africa – another 130 billion barrels – as well as the Congo region, with 50 billion barrels or more.

Finally, Marcio described the “unknown potential of the US back yard, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).” Marcio offered remarkable insight into the deep regions of the GOM, 100 miles and more offshore Texas and Louisiana. He showed early work he performed on a number of GOM areas, including the site of BP’s (BP: NYSE) recent billion-plus barrel find at the Tiber site.

If his analyses of the South American, African and GOM petroleum systems are correct, the world has access to much more conventional oil than people previously believed. But accessing and producing this oil will require a trillion-dollar level of offshore, deepwater investment. It’s a 30- to 50-year project.

“Deepwater” will be a BIG business.

Some of the companies that are well-positioned for the deepwater era of crude oil production include Petrobras, Repsol (REP: NYSE), BP (BP: NYSE) and StatoilHydro (STO: NYSE). I am also a fan of subsea equipment builders like Cameron Intl. (CAM: NYSE) and FMC Technologies (FTI: NYSE), plus service companies like Halliburton (HAL: NYSE) and Baker Hughes (BHI: NYSE).

These are a few of my favorite long-term plays for the long-term era of deep-water development.

Regards,

Byron King,
for The Daily Reckoning

Bankers B.S. – Brazilian Oil Opportunities

Eric Fry, reporting from the scene of the crime, New York City…

Your California editor returned to New York City yesterday, his old stomping grounds. The place didn’t look much different than the last time he passed through, about three months ago. The sidewalks weren’t very crowded and the restaurants weren’t very full. Maybe the “green shoots” of recovery aren’t as green as advertised.

So let’s turn to the news…

A quick perusal of yesterday’s headlines revealed little news of great importance. Hmmm…let’s see…a Southern governor publicly confessed his sins and sought forgiveness. Wall Street firms publicly denied their sins and launched a massive P.R. campaign.

“Wall Street’s largest trade group has started a campaign to counter the ‘populist’ backlash against bankers,” Bloomberg News reports. “In memos of confidential meetings with top financial executives, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said it began this month the ‘execution phase’ of the operation, which pledges to ‘embrace change’ and accountability.”

To conduct this campaign of “change” and “accountability” Wall Street will toss tens of thousands of dollars at pollsters, P.R. firms and other public-image managers.

A cynical observer might be tempted to deduce, “Oh, that’s nice, first these firms blow up the American banking industry, solely for the sake of enriching themselves, then they funnel a portion of their bailout monies toward P.R. firms, for the sake of repairing their reputations.”

But let’s not yield to cynicism. Instead, let’s step inside Wall Street’s Gucci loafers for a moment.

If you were one of the individuals who’s unbridled greed had helped bring the economy to its knees, wouldn’t you want the public to focus on something else? And if you were one of the folks who’s raw self-interest helped investors lose trillions of dollars and helped workers lose millions of jobs, wouldn’t you want to launch a campaign “against populist overreaction?”

Living a charmed life – financed by taxpayers – isn’t as easy as it seems…especially not when so many folks are struggling. Do you think it’s easy to continue receiving multi-million-dollar paychecks while the economy struggles to digest the poison you fed it?

But this situation brings us to the heart of the problem. Where is the gratitude? Where is the compassion for the tens of thousands of low-level Wall Street employees who have lost their jobs, just so that the executives who remain can resume paying themselves salaries and bonuses they do not deserve?

Wall Street’s new P.R. effort might work, but your editors here at the Rude Awakening would suggest an alternative approach. We would offer a two-part image-recovery plan, free of charge:

1) Fire the P.R. firms.

2) Stop acting like complete jerks.

“The best P.R. comes from doing good,” one professional investor observes, “not from having to manage your image.”

In fairness to SIFMA, the trade organization represents 600 securities firms, brokerages and asset-management companies. The overwhelming majority of these operations conduct themselves with honesty and integrity. The employees they represent usually show up for work sober, work hard for their clients, and rarely kick the dog when they return home from a tough day.

Unfortunately, SIFMA also includes pariahs like Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Inc. and JP Morgan Chase. None of their bailout activities would be such a problem if they did not consume so much of our precious national capital, reputation and most importantly, investment opportunity cost.

When we hand $170 billion to AIG (who, in turn hands billions to Goldman Sachs, UBS and others), we do not invest $170 billion in dynamic capitalistic enterprises that could multiply our return down the road.

When we toss billions of dollars into the Wall Street black hole, the investment expectation is merely to “get our money back” or to “not lose a cent.” What private investor would risk capital with such a grim expectation?

While we here in America pile up massive debts to bail out failing industries, the next generation of leading world economies is busy deploying its wealth in promising endeavors around the globe.

China recently invested $10 billion to help develop offshore oil reserves in Brazil. This seems like a MUCH better investment than buying $10 billion worth of Citigroup preferred stock.

Byron King explains in the column below…

———————————-

Deep, Wet and Brazilian
By Byron King

Offshore areas of the world — especially in deep water — are the key to the world’s energy future. Far out and deep down. That’s where the last great hydrocarbon discoveries remain to be made.

That’s why, in my investment letter, Outstanding Investments, I’ve constructed a kind of end-to-end offshore energy mutual fund – from prospect to pipeline. Each company has a broad skill set. None is just a one-trick pony. Some of the companies overlap in skill sets, and even compete with each other.

A few of my favorite names include Norway’s offshore powerhouse StatoilHydro (STO: NYSE), as well as subsea equipment provider FMC Technologies (FTI: NYSE). Then there’s platform and pipeline builder McDermott Intl. (MDR: NYSE), as well as offshore services provider Superior Energy Services (SPN: NYSE).

Going forward, I’m be looking to recommend other deepwater plays…at the right price, of course. I’m looking for companies that can grab hold of key parts of the growing offshore business, and produce great profits in the coming years. I think you’re going to be astonished at what unfolds.

I recently attended the annual convention of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG). (Some guys go to classic car shows; I go to geologist conventions). I’ve been a member of AAPG for 30 years, and it’s always fascinating to spend some time there. The meeting rooms and poster sessions feature reports from the front lines of the search for petroleum, natural gas and other energy resources.

One theme emerged loud and clear from this year’s conference: Deepwater. Most of the major oil discoveries that remain to be found in the world will be offshore, in deep water.

The always-ebullient Brazilian geochemist, Marcio Mello — CEO of Brazil’s HRT Petroleum Co. — wowed the crowd with a discussion of the oil potential of the South Atlantic. “Six of the last ten giant oil discoveries in the world were offshore Brazil,” he pointed out. And then Marcio moved the discussion to the other side of the South Atlantic and gave an eye-popping description of the oil potential of the offshore regions of Namibia.

“The Namibian offshore is analogous to that of Brazil,” Marcio stated, with slides and hard data to back it up. Then he showed his proprietary research into natural offshore oil seeps off Namibia, and the geochemistry that demonstrates immense hydrocarbon potential. “But Namibia,” said Marcio, “is way underexplored. So you can put down a little money for the concessions and get very rich.”

The point for investors is how much of future world energy development will involve subsea systems.

For additional perspective, let’s examine the current structure of the American energy supply. Right now, most of the U.S. energy mix comes from burning coal, natural gas and oil. In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. gets 87% of its total energy mix from burning fossil fuels. Another 7% of U.S. energy supply comes from nuclear power. The total is 94%.

That leaves about 6% of the U.S. energy mix to come from so-called “renewable” and alternative sources. And 3% of that 6% is renewable hydropower from unique sources like the Hoover, Grand Coulee and other dams. And we’re not building any more big dams.

Thus, only about 3% of U.S. total energy comes from things that grow, blow or shine. Of that 3%, about half (1.5%) is from “biofuels,” and that’s if you count a company like Weyerhaeuser (WY: NYSE) burning sawdust to run the sawmills.

Finally, there’s a very minor part of the total U.S. energy mix — about 1.5% — that comes from windmills, solar and geothermal. For as much visibility as these things get in the media and pop culture, their energy output is tiny — slightly above statistical noise in the overall national mix.

So just follow the numbers. The “alternative” energy sources are a miniscule component of the current energy mix. That’s after a few good years of significant investment, with lots of political support and plenty of tax breaks.

It will take many years (many decades!) for these energy sources to expand and meet the energy needs of the U.S. And that’s despite whatever the politicians and policymakers wish for in their dreams.

That’s why the U.S. must continue exploring for oil and gas. I cringe when I look at the falling rig counts in the U.S. and around the world. Every well that’s NOT drilled is one less source of hydrocarbon in the years to come, as depletion causes output from current wells to decline…which brings us back to the South Atlantic, one of the world’s greatest petroleum provinces.

Some experts think that the hydrocarbon resources in the pre-salt formations off the Brazilian coast may rival those of Saudi Arabia in magnitude. We’ll see about that. But it’s beyond dispute that Brazil and its energy resources are a complete game-changer for that nation, and the rest of the energy-consuming world. It goes back to basic geology and the history of plate tectonics.

When South America started to pull away from Africa about 140 million years ago, an isolated seaway formed — a proto-Atlantic Ocean — that filled again and again with sequences of limestone, thin shales and, finally, massive salt beds. The processes of petroleum geology worked as advertised in the region. And these processes left utterly eye-popping volumes of petroleum locked in high-quality reservoirs covering vast areas.

The big downside (and it’s big and down, to be sure!) is that all that oil is under a mile or two of South Atlantic seawater, covered by three or four miles of rock and salt beds — it depends where you’re located on the continental shelf and slope.

But that’s why it takes companies with phenomenal technical and managerial skills, plus deep pockets, to play in this great game. The bottom line is that with the right companies working at it, there’s enough oil down there to produce a very big payday, not just for Brazil, but for many of the companies that contribute to the effort

Coming Up: Free Forum on Tough Problems in Oil Geophysics

Tough Problems in Geophysics

OilVoice is pleased to announce the fourth in a series of half day forums on Wednesday, 24th of June. Under the heading of Tough Problems in Geophysics, five oil and gas industry service companies will present to an audience of oil and gas professionals at the Geological Society in London.

Proceedings will open with an Invited Talk from Ian Jack, ex-BP and well known throughout our industry and then Tullow Oil will reveal some of the mysteries of the Albertine Basin of Uganda. The aim is to tackle issues such as tough terrains (Tundra, transition zone, deep ocean bottom) and tough ‘requests’ (Why can’t land 3D be as fast and as cheap as marine? Can’t we drastically reduce the time it takes to acquire and process?).

Our ambition is for this to be a landmark day in geophysics!

Information and Registration:

http://www.oilvoiceforum.com/register/?id=4