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    • 'Love has won out over hate': France becomes 14th country to allow gay marriage May 18, 2013
      PARIS -- French President Francois Hollande has signed into law a bill allowing same-sex marriage, making France the 14th country to legalize gay weddings.France's official journal announced on Saturday the bill had become law after the Constitutional Council gave it the go-ahead on Friday.The bill, a campaign pledge by the Socialist president, has been […]
      Leigh Thomas and Mark John, Reuters
    • Shots fired at Cannes film festival, actors flee for cover May 18, 2013
      CANNES, France -- A man was arrested at the Cannes film festival on Friday after firing a starting pistol during a live TV broadcast on the palm-lined waterfront, sending actors Christoph Waltz and Daniel Auteuil running for cover.French TV station Canal+ was interviewing Austria's Oscar-winning Waltz and French actor Auteuil live on its nightly news sh […]
      Matthias Galante, Reuters
    • Capping week of scandal management, Obama says focus remains on jobs May 18, 2013
      It hasn’t been a fun week in the West Wing, but President Barack Obama insisted Friday that his focus remains on job creation despite Washington’s tendency to get “distracted”  by political battles. “I know it can seem frustrating sometimes when it seems like Washington’s priorities aren’t your priorities,” he said at a manufacturing plant in Baltimore, Md. […]
      Carrie Dann, Political Reporter, NBC News
    • Zach Galifianakis' 'Hangover' ends, but the comedic party keeps rolling May 18, 2013
      By Kurt SchlosserNBC NewsZach Galifianakis warned Brian Williams that viewers would turn off a long interview piece with the actor if it aired on "Rock Center." But after watching several candid minutes with the comedian and "Hangover" star on Friday night, it was hard not to be left wanting more.Galifianakis, the bearded comic turned rel […]
      Rock Center with Brian Williams
    • 'Why would we wait?': 3 sisters face Jolie's cancer dilemma May 18, 2013
      Actress Angelina Jolie’s revelation this week that she’d had both breasts removed to lower her elevated risk of cancer came as a bombshell to many -- but not to three sisters from Berkeley Heights, N.J.The women -- Cathy Balsamo, Cindy Lepore and Patti Broccoli -- have spent most of the past year grappling with the very dilemma that Jolie faced: What to do w […]
      JoNel Aleccia, Senior Writer, NBC News

Global growth: American exceptionalism

American exceptionalism

Jul 1st 2011, 17:41 by R.A. | WASHINGTON; Courtesy, The Economist

AMERICA’S economic prospects seem to be improving, but it’s very nearly alone in that respect. The latest data from purchasing managers’ indexes around the world provide a snapshot of a global slowdown. While American manufacturing activity grew at a faster pace in June relative to May, most countries saw slowdowns and a few dipped back into contractionary territory. (See this useful interactive at Real Time Economics for an easy comparison.)

Slowing growth in China has grabbed attention, given recent headlines about debt loads and unrest there. China’s PMI dipped from 52 to 50.9, barely in expansionary territory, in June. That’s not entirely a bad thing, however. Chinese inflation has been running uncomfortably high, and the government has been working to slow the economy’s growth. The story is the same in India, where activity also slowed, and in Brazil, where production actually fell in June.

As the chart at right indicates, the Indian and Brazilian economies have been running especially hot. (You can see an interactive chart of the factors that make-up the index here.) Depending on the pace of the slowdown over the next few months, there are sure to be worries about hard landings. Emerging market governments have little choice but to combat destabilising inflation.

The good news for the rich world is that slowing emerging market growth will keep commodity prices. That, in turn, will dampen inflationary pressures and free central banks to respond more appropriately to domestic economic conditions. In Europe, those conditions are weak and getting weaker. Manufacturing activity for the euro zone decelerated sharply in June. The big core economies, Germany and France, weren’t spared. But matters are worse around the periphery.

Link to Full Article

10 cities that will take a decade to recover from the recession

The city’s economy relies on gaming and tourism, two industries which have been hit extremely hard by the recession.
 
By Charles B. Stockdale
24/7 Wall St. 24/7 Wall St.
updated 7/4/2011 11:41:13 AM ET 2011-07-04T15:41:13
 

The Great Recession officially began in December 2007 and ended in July 2009. This doesn’t mean that the economy has returned to where it was before the steepest downturn since the Great Depression and may not for years. According to a recent report by IHS Global Insight, employment is not expected to return to its pre-recession peak until 2014.

To be sure, parts of the U.S. are recovering. Experts expect the economy to grow an average of 3 percent in the second half of this year. Thirty metropolitan areas will have reached their pre-recession peaks by the end of 2011. More than half of the nation’s 363 metropolitan areas are expected to return to their employment peaks by 2014 or before. Others are not so lucky.

The IHS report lists 37 metropolitan areas which are not expected to return to peak employment until after 2021. These areas are facing a “Lost Decade.” Some may never fully recover, although it’s probably useless to try to predict what may happen a decade or more from today.

Link to Full Article

Spending surges, but jobless claims rise

updated 1 hour, 38 minutes ago

WASHINGTON – First-time claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, a sign employers are reluctant to hire and the job market remains weak.

And even though consumer spending jumped by the most in nearly eight years in August, due partly to the government’s Cash for Clunkers program, economists question whether the improvement can be sustained. They note that households face rising unemployment, tight credit conditions and other obstacles.

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 551,000 from 534,000 in the previous week. Wall Street economists had expected an increase to 535,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

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Sen. Bernie Sanders: Is the Recession Over?

Just the other day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, Iit is very likely that the recession has ended.”

Well, let me just suggest to Mr. Bernanke that today we have about 17 percent of our workforce – 26 million Americans – who are either unemployed, have given up looking for work because they no longer think a job is possible, or they are working part time when they want to work full time. That’s 17 percent of our population.

For those folks, I don’t think they believe this recession is over.

In fact, what they believe is that they are mired in the worst economic mess since the Great Depression.

One of the really disturbing statistics out there is that it is taking unemployed people a lot longer to find a job than used to be the case. On average, it’s taking about six months.

But it’s not just losing your job or working part time. People are losing health insurance, losing their homes, losing their pensions. What it’s about is slipping out of the middle class and into poverty and not having the capability of sending your kids to college. That’s what the economy is about today.

So to my mind, most importantly, we have got to stay focused on the reality that because of the greed, the irresponsibility, and the illegal behavior of people on Wall Street, we are plunged into a real economic mess, and we’re going to have to work together and we’re going to have to think real hard about how we get out of that mess.

I’ve talked before about some of the ideas we’re working on, but let me just reiterate what some of them are.

We need to get a handle on Wall Street so that they do not go back to the horrendous ways of the past. They are spending millions of dollars right now on lobbying and campaign contributions to make that happen. What we must demand – and this is enormously important – is a new Wall Street, not designed to make hundreds of millions of dollars for their CEOs, but a Wall Street designed to help increase manufacturing in the U.S., create decent jobs, help small businesses, do something for the productive economy.

Another area that we need to return to is our disastrous trade policies which allow corporate America to throw American workers on the street, move to China, pay people 50 cents an hour, and then bring those products back into the country.

So there is a lot of work ahead of us in terms of the economy. Let’s stay focused on this issue, and don’t believe anybody who’s telling you “the recession is over.”

Link to Article

Look Out – China’s Going Hi-Tech

Here’s an interesting blog I picked up on that talks about the changes going on in China’s manufacturing world. It’s not just about low production costs anymore.

When one think of China, her competitive advantage on providing low cost manufacturing usually comes into mind. Others will think of her Great Wall, culture and food. For past two decades, the Chinese Price is a formidable phenomenon that delights the buyers and consumers while probably cause detestable reaction from the workers in the western industrialized countries.

 

I can empathize the distraught feeling towards the impact on low cost manufacturing from China. I remember my aunt who is from China came to visit me in Singapore in 1986 and would like me to go to China to assist them to beef up their manufacturing capability. I politely turned down her offer as I was having a good job and life in Singapore then. Nine years later while I was working in a high tech computer peripheral company, a product was transferred to China for manufacturing because the total cost is US$0.50 cheaper than in Singapore. The product cost was US$46! Never have I thought that I would end up here in China since 1997 because Singapore is no longer a manufacturing base.  I am not sure how long I have to stay in China.

The Singapore operators had lower education compared to the Chinese, who were at least junior high school educated, in the MNC factories. The higher education and younger age provide them the ability to learn fast and agile.

The cheap goods from China remind me of Japan, Korea and Taiwan. In the 1960s and 1970s, Japanese goods were known to be cheap and of poor quality. I remember vividly as a teenager in 1970s, branded goods were non-Japanese made and were produced in the West. So were the goods from Korea and Taiwan in the 1980s. I saw an advertisement during my trip to US in mid 1980s, that for the price of one Ford car, you can buy two Hyundai cars – one to drive to work and another to drive home. Now no one doubt about the quality and reliability of these products. And their price is no longer very cheap.

Will China follow the same path of development? I am sure she will as this is natural law of evolution. But because of her sheer size, it will take longer time for us to detect the change. The sweatshops or mom & pa factories are still there slogging long working hours with the minuscule profit churning out goods to be sold in the big discount mega chains in the Western countries. These factories could not raise their price as the buyers would just go to next door to procure.

I usually feel pathetic towards the workers in such harsh and horrible working environment. Safety measures are not in place and many of them have to endure the exploitation from the employers who are trying to squeeze every penny to meet their customers’ target price. Worse still, the people and the country are paying the high price through poor health, loss of family members due to work related accidence or hazards, environmental pollution, etc. Isn’t this similar to the Minamata disease (mercury poisoning) in Japan during the late 1950s?

The sweatshops are moving inland due to higher operating cost, stricter government monitoring, higher wages and land cost in the coastal cities. As long as there are consumers who want to buy cheap goods, there will be manufacturers willing to provide. Hence the Chinese Price will continue to dominate the low price merchandized goods globally.

The current economic crisis is taking a grave toll to many enterprises regardless whether it is a big or small company. Thousands of them have gone bankrupt. However knowing the perseverance and resourcefulness of the Chinese entrepreneurs, I am sure many of them will spring back to life when the crisis is over. Many of those who survive the ordeal and the new starters will not operate the sweatshops like they did before. The reasons are as follows:

1.        The mass media and Internet have been exposing the horrendous situation at work sites, ill treatments by the employers, conspiracy between local government official and entrepreneurs to exploit the workers and country, corruptions, unethical practices, etc. This civil monitoring has prevented many companies from attempting to take the malice path.

2.       The extreme immoral disregard about the environment and caused noxious pollution is no longer tolerable by the people and the government. The government is now fully aware of the consequences of the pollution in terms of live loss, humongous cost to clean up, long lasting stigma and high medical cost of those infected. And most effectively, the local government officials either lose their jobs or being prosecuted together with the factory owners. Many companies are denied license to operate if they are found flouting the environmental controls. This is beginning to happen in the inland provinces as well. A good step to start with!

3.       The continuous effort by the central government to fight corruption is showing some results. Hence many of the unlawful and unethical practices found in the factories are beginning to diminish. Many folks may not agree with me due to the presence of rampant corruption in view. However if you were here in 1990s when the government officials openly accepting bribes and now they have to do it deviously behind closed doors, would agree with me. I will talk more about corruption in my next blog post.

4.       The Chinese government has been implementing new or amended legislations and policies regularly to address the inadequate control system. It helps to bring the country in line with the global general practices. Inspectors and auditors are sent to ensure conformance to the new rulings. Many malpractices are being curbed or stopped. The prosecution of the offenders has an intimidating effect on others that they need to follow the law.

5.       The young generation growth is slowing due to the one-child policy. The population is aging fast and the factory is not going to have an eternal abundant supply of young workforce. The younger generation is better educated and has higher expectation. They are not going to be like their parents working long hours in a dim lighted and dirty shop floor.

6.       Operating cost at the coastal cities is rising rapidly. Land and building cost have risen with the property bubble inflating. They now have to implement proper process and quality control system.

7.       The entrepreneurs have learned to say no to their customers on cost reduction. Previously they are not good at accounting and agreed to the price from the customers thinking that they would make some profit. “If my competitor sells at X dollars, I am sure I can do it in less than X dollars” was the common mindset. After some years of operation, they know the cost structure better and would not agree with the price or cost reduction if they are not making a reasonable profit. Some of the entrepreneurs have diverted their investment into stock and property speculation for higher return. The bosses are being preoccupied with stock indices instead of the issues on production floors. This is one of the factors causing the bubbles right now.

With the above control measures, many sweatshops have learned (or forced) to operate in an appropriate manner. Though there are still many factories hiding in the remote corner operating the old ways, I am confident they would eventually be wiped out. Not in the next ten years but would happen in the following decade. Thus the Chinese Price is not going to be cheaper but would reflect the real cost obtained by the shrewdness and resourcefulness of the entrepreneurs who cannot afford to pollute the environment and exploiting the workers anymore.

We have been overwhelmed with these low price merchandize that we have missed out the subtle change that China is embarking on high-tech and high cost products. She has just unveiled a mockup of a passenger jet (C919) to be delivered in 2016. There is plan now to build the aircraft carrier. With the collaboration from foreign companies, she is producing high end computers, electronic and electrical goods and gadgets, cars, industrial equipments, etc. Her high speed train is now zooming in some countries already.

Twenty five years ago during the height of Japanese dominance in the global market, I read an article by a western journalist that Asians were innovative and no way creative like the Caucasians. This is because of the way Asians were brought up and educated. Culturally they were submissive and lacked the questioning mind to ponder. I kept that belief until some years ago. I had visited many historical sites and museums and saw the engineering feats and inventions that were awesome. I read the books, “1421” and “1434” by Gavin Menzies where he illustrated the breathtaking journeys of the Chinese voyagers and the Chinese inventions at that time. I am convinced that Asians (Chinese, Indians, Japanese, Koreans, and yes including Singapore) are also creative too. I have learned a lot more of my race now and proud of it.

The Chinese has new found pride and self confidence in them. I had talked to two senior executives from two different large MNCs. Both had the opportunity to visit Singapore on many trips throughout 1990s. In the early 1990s, they felt Singapore was awesome and many years ahead of China in terms of living standards, modernization and industrialization. In the mid 1990s, their admiration had withered and believed they were on par with us. And at the turn of the millennium, they would not want to come to Singapore as they saw their Shanghai city had more to offer than our tiny island. And this quick mindset change is awe-inspiring, isn’t it? They no longer accept the bias criticism from the West and would fight for their dignity and rights. The recent demonstrations of the Chinese students in Western countries to protest unjust treatment towards China are good illustration.

Hence we need to understand that the new generation in China is more intelligent, better educated, proud to be a Chinese and still hard working to achieve their career goals. This is the strategic leverage that China could use to maintain her competitive advantage.

The competitive advantage of China is no longer just cheap goods. They will keep some low cost manufacturing to feed the huge population and pass the rest of the sweatshops to the third world countries. The price is not going to be cheap but it would be competitive that not many countries could match. The strong supply chain that has been developed in the industry is not easily emulated by another country.

China attempt in the high technology products is yielding results and has appeared in the market in modest form. With the new found wealth, drive and intelligence of her workforce, she will dominate the market with automobiles, electronics, high-tech industrial equipment and probably advanced military hardware.

This create a unique scenario where she posses two contrary competitive advantages at the same time. A world manufacturing base that produces cheap merchandized goods and high tech products.  By then she is a formidable force to be reckon with.

Sep 13 2009

Define Your Brand and Sharpen Your Competitive Edge

Sep 8, 2009 4:45 PM, By Gregory J. Pollack

In today’s world of ongoing financial turmoil, consumers are searching for—and demanding—a level of trust. For smart marketers and senior executives, this spells opportunity.

As we all know, a “brand” by definition is a promise that you can trust. And re-building trust through your brand is the secret to success.

Today, customers want and demand more. They want to know not only what they are getting, but why they should want or need it. They want to know how a product is different from the competition, and why they should trust that a brand will bring about their desired results. Brands need to stay current, and be more than simply just a product.

One strategic response to help companies and brands move forward is to dust off and refine their positioning statements and see if they really represent what the organization stands for today.

The original intent of a brand positioning statement is essentially to highlight a clear overarching message. It should include what your company stands for and your brand’s point of differentiation, as well as positioning in the marketplace and overall industry. The statement needs to be simple, clear, concise, understandable and all-encompassing. It should be something everyone—management, employees, customers, manufacturing and vendors—can rally around.

To get to the core of your brand’s positioning, you need to consider your brand’s platforms, the three to five key pillars that represent the cornerstones of the brand’s products and services. Identifying these can allow marketers and senior management to look at new channels of distribution, new products, and new ways of conducting business – all with the end goal of attracting and retaining new customers.

Identifying these platforms can help companies develop specific marketing program ideas; solve a current problem or challenge; respond directly to competitive growth and expansion; invigorate the existing brands and products; search for new channels of distribution; identify new growth opportunities; and respond to realistic market, industry and customer demands including both trade, retail and consumer.

To create brand platforms, you should look at the history of the company and its business units, as well as the industry and the competition.
Using this information will be critical in focusing in on key words and phrases that make up the business in which your company and brands compete. Some relevant and appropriate platforms could include quality, precision, durability, taste, performance and customer service.

Under each brand platform, there should be a series of phrases that support and describe each area. For instance, if your brand platform is “trust,” this could include safety, quality, customer service, ease of use, ease of access, long-term brand equity, etc.

If your brand platform is “achievable,” then some key expressions could include now-you-can, reaching all target audiences, price/value, competitive, etc. “Friendly” could perhaps be appropriate for a more service-oriented company and brand which could include supporting descriptors such as reachable, convenient, ease of use, approachable, family, engaging, etc.

However, the magic is that when all of these words and phrases are used in the right combination they unlock an ownable, sustainable, leverageable and extendable series of ideas unique only to your company and brand groups. And these platforms can then be used to ensure that the company and brand groups remain on track in business, can develop new products and services for new and emerging markets, identify new usage occasions for existing brands and products, as well as open new channels of distribution.

The rationale for creating brand platforms should include:
· Reaching varied target audiences
· Defining usage occasions
· Broadening category
· Building the customer base
· Providing relevancy for management, affiliates and agencies
· Delivering strategic outline for integrated marketing efforts
· Ensuring consistency to brand positioning
·
Ideally, all of this would allow each platform to focus on different target audiences, with different messaging and marketing programs. In the earlier examples, clearly “trust” as a platform would reach a specific target audience and user group for your company and brand, while “achievable” would set up a different set of criteria in how to reach a more “price/value-driven” target audience and user group.

As an example, our company, PBM Marketing Solutions, has been involved with Virgin Charter, a division of the Virgin Companies and an online marketplace for private jet charter travel.

While the “Virgin” name is recognized as a worldwide brand and innovator in a number of businesses globally, Virgin Charter specifically still needed not only to create an ownable position within the marketplace, but also to differentiate itself from the competition. A plan was developed to focus on the brand platforms of simple, trust, empowered, fresh and attainable, targeting specific audiences and user groups with clear goals.

As one example, “empowered” equated to control, individualized, personalized, in-charge, choice, ownable, transparent, and on-demand; while “fresh” showcased fun, innovative, cool, new, refreshing, friendly, familiar and rewrite-the-rules.

In today’s constantly fluctuating and changing economic climate, companies, brands, and businesses have a tremendous opportunity to stand up, take a leadership role in their industries and marketplace and clearly explain to customers “Why Buy Me.” A transparent and clearly defined answer is what will breed success and long-term sustainability in the marketplace.

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But Did Anyone Notice Inflation?

The mainstream media has been elated by early signs of economic activity picking up. In particular the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) issued their Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on September 1:

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS158400+01-Sep-2009+BW20090901

The index was reported at 52.9. This is the highest in two years and the first reading above 50 since the credit crisis began. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing. The media was euphoric and investors have pushed the US stock indices to post recovery highs. What did not receive any attention was the prices paid component of the index. It increased to 65 from a reading of 55 in July. This is 18% increase in a single month! In May 2009 the index was at 43.5 which represents 49% increase in prices paid over 3 months. This is absolutely stunning. This is not a government massaged index; this is based on what purchasing managers are reporting they are paying. Only 8% of managers reported paying lower prices while 38% reported receiving higher prices.

This report was followed on September 3 by the Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS173419+03-Sep-2009+BW20090903

It was reported at 48.4 and while this is still indicating contraction the index was 2 points higher than in July and 8 points higher than in March. Again the media were waxing lyrical about recovery. Again what was not mentioned was the prices paid component; it increased to 63.1 from 41.3 which is a simply shocking 52% jump in one month. It increased 34.5% from its May reading. Only 6% of managers reported paying lower prices while 23% reported paying higher prices.

On September 4 the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) U.S. Future

Inflation Gauge (USFIG) was released:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSNYS00538420090904

It was 89.6 in August compared to 84.6 in July. This is a 5.9% increase in one month. The August USFIG annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, rocketed to positive 6.5% from negative 8.8% in July! In other words the annualized indicator which smoothes out volatility went from a highly deflationary picture to one of rampant inflation in just a single month! The ECRI commented that the gauge was pushed higher by rising commodity prices. This dovetails with the picture we see from the reports of actual prices being paid as reported by the ISM.

The NY Federal Reserve Bank President, William Dudley, said on August 31st “My view is we have tools to manage our balance sheet so we’re not going to have an inflation outcome, a bad inflation outcome”

http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2009/08/31/ny-federal-reserve-president-says-us-can-avoid-coming-inflation/

“I’m totally committed to taking away the punch bowl at the right time,” he said during the same interview. “It is possible that inflation could decline for a while because of the slack in economy and the banking system will take time to heal itself”, Dudley added.

Judging by the data I have presented it looks like Mr. Dudley only takes away the punch-bowl when his guests are rolling around on the floor incapable of drinking another drop!

Almost everyone has their eyes glued to the money supply data and the BLS CPI and PPI. Of course the government’s proclivity to exclude everything that is rising in price from the PPI and CPI in their special brand of hedonics means that the last place to observe the affects of monetary inflation will be in these indices. John Williams at shadowstats.com reports that his reconstructed M3 is only growing at a rate of 6% annualized. I however question the accuracy of the input data. I don’t think that all the actual monetary injections are being reported, which is probably one reason the FED does not want to be audited. Neil Barofsky, Inspector General of the TARP, recently testified before Congress that the total credit lines of the 50 or so stimulus programs totaled 23.7 Trillion dollars. A Treasury spokesman countered with a statement that only 2T$ had so far been spent. Where does that 2T$ appear in the M3 data? It doesn’t! If government officials have the capacity to access 23.7T$ of credit who will bet me that they will not spend it? Clearly money is being pumped into the system which is bypassing the reporting system.

Furthermore the weakness of the US dollar means that foreign holdings of dollars will return to the domestic market as they are dumped.

A very important factor in the growing inflationary scenario is the monster derivatives market. The derivatives market provided massive leverage to mask inflation created in the Greenspan era. Greenspan massively increased the money supply from 4 T$ in 1995 to 12T$ by 2006. This would normally have created rampant general price inflation. The prices of commodities, which are the raw materials we use for manufacturing and for much of our food chain, were suppressed by the derivatives market creating phantom paper supply of commodities resulting in the apparent supply appearing many times bigger than the physical supply and so suppressed prices. This was the main purpose of the derivatives market and why 5 US Banks held 96% of all OTC derivatives and why Greenspan vehemently defended it not being regulated. The derivatives market grew to a staggering 1,200 Trillion dollars. How can a market that has a notional value of 20 times the size of the global economy not be regulated? How can this market be excluded from a discussion of whether we face inflation or deflation? This monster has now contracted to less than half its peak size and is continuing to shrink. As the phantom paper promises of commodities are removed from the market the previous suppressing effect is also removed and prices will rise. The 15 years of price suppression has prevented any meaningful expansion in the global production capacity of commodities. We will now see many commodities become in short supply and the consequent ramp up in prices.

Many analysts are waiting at the “front door” of the economy for signs of inflation, while inflation is flooding in through the back door.

In my article “The Green Shoots of Hyperinflation”

http://www.marketforceanalysis.com/Published%20Articles_2009_assets/Green%20Shoots%20of%20Hyperinflation.pdf

I showed that the S&P500 has entered a new bull market trend. An updated version of the chart in that article is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: S&P 500 Potential Energy Chart (1990-2009)

 

At Market Force Analysis we have developed a proprietary indicator which is called “Potential Energy” (PE) which uses the intraday data to determine whether buyers or sellers are more dominant. In figure 1 the S&P 500 is shown in black and the Potential Energy (PE) in blue. When the PE is rising the primary trend of the market is up and when it is falling the primary trend is down. It can be seen that this indicator is excellent at identifying a change in the primary trend. In the last 19 years only 4 turning points are identified as indicated by the arrows. The latest is a transition from bear to bull in March 2009. What is clear from PE is that the rise and fall cycles of the S&P500 in 2008 where the PE was falling are not the same as the rise we have seen since March 2009. The most recent rise is very similar to what was seen in 2003 when the market turned from Bear to Bull.

This is totally at odds with the fundamentals of the economy but this is another sign of inflation. As the dollar is debased money will flood into anything as a hedge against loss of purchasing power. The stock market will be such a hedge. It will rise in nominal terms but decline in real terms. This phenomenon was seen in Weimar Germany when its stock market made stellar nominal gains as the currency was debased and more recently in Zimbabwe the same phenomenon has been observed. The S&P500 will see pullbacks but it will not crash to new lows, below the March 2009 level of 676, as many expect.

I do not recommend buying general equities because investors will only gain in nominal terms while losing in real terms. The time tested hedge against inflation is precious metals and quality companies who explore for them and dig them out of the ground.

Real data is being reported, but ignored by the media and mainstream analysts, that reveal shocking increases in prices. There are still many who have their head stuck in the sands of deflation. Inflation and hyperinflation are baked in the cake by the promiscuous and unprecedented actions of the Federal Reserve and the unwinding of the massive derivatives commodity price suppression scheme.

Adrian Douglas
September 6, 2009

Managing Inventory: How Long Will Small Be Beautiful?

Not all recessions are alike. The current downturn, for instance, stirs a memory in Charles Mulford of how different the situation was 35 years ago.

It was 1974, the first year of a two-year recession sparked by the Federal Reserve’s tight-money policy. Mulford, now an accounting professor at Georgia Tech who directs the university’s Financial Analysis Lab, recalls the scene as he flew into the Tampa airport to begin a new job at an accounting firm. “They had all these fields fenced off next to the airport. There were acres and acres of cars —new cars— just lined up,” he says.

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Job market unlikely to recover until 2014

New unemployment data show why it will take years for the labor market to recover from one of its fastest and deepest declines since World War II, even if an economic recovery is around the corner.

The Department of Labor report released Friday showed job cuts in August were lower than they’ve been in recent months. But a deeper look at the data shows why it will take millions of new jobs to dig American workers out of this recession’s deep pit.

Unemployment for teenagers stands at nearly 26 percent. More than 758,000 workers are so discouraged they quit looking for jobs altogether, by far the biggest such number since the Department of Labor started tracking it in 1994. Damage continues to mount in the manufacturing, financial and construction sectors.

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Defense Needs Drive Tech Innovation

The Pentagon’s anticipated need for topflight advanced technology spells business for defense contractors, for sure. But many developments originally designed for military use wind up with big commercial markets as well. Check out some new technologies spurred by Defense Department demand.

  • Small, portable power systems. The Defense Department wants hydrogen fuel cells, about the size of a loaf of bread, to power very small hand-launched surveillance drones. They’re under development by Protonex, a fuel cell maker in Southborough, Mass.
  • Virtual piloting. Proxy Aviation Systems in Germantown, Md., is working on software to allow a single computer operator to simultaneously navigate, coordinate flight paths and communicate target and fire orders to multiple weaponized drones. Drones, in general, are an area of large government procurement growth, and Northrop Grumman, Boeing and General Atomics are banking on them.
  • Tiny video lenses. The military thinks a variety of tiny, ultralightweight lenses about as slim and flat as a business card would have multiple uses, including attaching them to the underside of wings on unmanned surveillance aircraft or to soldiers’ helmets. Southern Methodist University’s engineering department is working on versions that use hundreds of tiny lenses working in concert. Images from the lenses are merged to provide single high quality video.

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